As of February 28 at 2:37 PM ET, Polymarket odds suggest there’s only a 3% chance that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, will be the country’s leader after March 31. Hence, they likely believe he didn’t survive today’s Israeli/US joint attack.
Also known as the “Ayatollah,” Khamenei is—or was—not just a political dictator but a high‑ranking religious figure. Simply put, he acts as both the final religious and political authority.
🚨#BREAKING: At this time multiple reports are claiming that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has been k*lled and that his body was recovered during Trump’s operation in Iran. This is still developing pic.twitter.com/xQ9WOqP0ta
— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) February 28, 2026
Popular or not in Iran these days, the Ayatollah is a way of life there. His death would be a really big deal.
“Help Has Arrived,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech on Saturday.
“We have destroyed Khamenei’s compound and killed Revolutionary Guard commanders and senior nuclear officials,” he said, adding that “signs are growing that Khamenei is also gone.”
🚨 BREAKING
— Israel Observer 🇮🇱 (@IsraelObserver0) November 16, 2024
At the age of 85, the head of the snake, the terrorist Ali khamenei is officially dead. pic.twitter.com/XwmaGNjD9a
Also, per BBC, during the attack, someone in a video on a Tehran street can be heard saying, “They hit it hard. Where did they hit? They’re saying it’s Khamenei’s residence.”
However, the Iranian government maintains that Khamenei is alive and safe, though it is understandable that they would convey this message at the present time. Announcing his death would likely heighten the risk of even more widespread chaos and make the government appear more susceptible to a coup.
Israel, not the U.S., was the one that attacked Khamenei.
— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) February 28, 2026
Thirty bombs were dropped on the compound.
Khamenei’s military secretary is dead, and apparently so are family members.
Khamenei is “almost certainly dead.”
