For the better part of five years, far right ideologists have been freaking out over Muslim growth in Europe and the possibility of a ‘Muslim takeover’ in that continent.
“Europe will be Islamic by the end of the century,” said Historian Bernard Lewis in an interview with the German newspaper Die Welt around 2004.
Dutch politician and activist Geert Wilders has centered his career on ending Muslim immigration to the Netherlands and Europe.
“The Netherlands can’t take it anymore,” Wilders told BBC. “We have to think about our own people first now. Borders closed. Zero asylum-seekers.”
“While there are many moderate Muslims, Islam’s political ideology is radical and has global ambitions.”
Even some Muslims have predicted Islam will take over Europe.
“There are signs that Allah will grant Islam victory in Europe—without swords, without guns, without conquest—will turn it into a Muslim continent within a few decades,” said former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
Are Muslims really poised to take over Europe anytime soon?
Pew Research Center developed three future scenarios to project the Muslim population growth in Europe based on varying migration levels. These projections are not precise predictions but possible outcomes considering different circumstances.
Starting from a 4.9% Muslim population in 2016 across 30 European countries, the study projects Muslims to increase as a share of Europe’s population – even with ZERO future migration – to 7.4% by 2050 due to high birth rates.
The other two scenarios suggest that with slowed migration, Muslims could constitute 11.2% of the population by 2050, while continued high migration rates could see this number rise to 14%.
- Zero Migration:
Assumptions: All migration into Europe stops immediately and permanently.
Outcome: Muslim population share rises from 4.9% (2016) to 7.4% by 2050, totaling around 30 million people, driven by natural increase. - Medium Migration:
Assumptions: Refugee flows cease, but “regular” migration (economic, family, education) continues at levels seen before the 2014-2016 crisis.
Outcome: Muslim population share more than doubles to 11.2% by 2050 (approx. 58.8 million), with significant growth in countries like the UK, France, and Sweden. - High Migration:
Assumptions: High asylum seeker flows from 2014-2016 continue indefinitely, alongside regular migration.
Outcome: Muslim share reaches 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 (around 75 million), with countries like Sweden potentially seeing 30.6% and Germany 20%.
The research distinguishes between migrants, asylum seekers, refugees, and those “in limbo,” excluding the latter from estimates. Approval rates for asylum requests and migration policies influenced projections, with acknowledgment that future wars, policies, and demographic changes could alter outcomes.
Countries receiving more Muslim migrants often do not perceive them as a threat, whereas others accepting fewer migrants may feel more threatened. Though Muslims are the majority among migrants, 47% are from other groups, with Christians as the second largest.
So, Europe’s declining fertility rates, set against the growth of its Muslim population, point to uneven demographic transformations across the continent, with Germany projected to have a Muslim population of up to 20% by 2050.
But 20% is a far cry from a 51% majority. So, based on the data, Muslims are not on the verge of overtaking Europe, even in a scenario with massive migration the next 25 years. Hence, anyone reading this will likely not see an Islamic Europe in their lifetime. However, in 100 or 200 years, Europe may very well have a Muslim majority. But that’s so far away, who knows how much traditions and customs will have changed by then?
Incidentally, Germany, in particular, has embraced immigration as a way to offset low birth rates and an aging population, ease labor shortages, and sustain its economy, though this approach has also brought integration challenges and fueled growing anti-immigrant sentiment.
If you’re concerned about Europe becoming a Muslim continent, it’s a legitimate worry and certainly a possibility… However, this scenario is unlikely to occur during your lifetime. And possibly not in your kids’.
