We predict U.S. Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican who is running for a sixth term, will lose her seat in 2026 to Graham Platner. However, it will be close, as the actual numbers are tighter than the polls.
What about the primary?
Platner will easily defeat Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary. He’s solidly beating her in the polls and is raising more money. His campaign has outraised Mills by nearly 3-to-1, per the latest Federal Election Commission filings, which run through last year.
Collins vs Platner
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Basic facts
Election date: November 3, 2026
Incumbent: Republican Susan Collins (running for a 6th term)
Democratic opponent:
Graham Platner (progressive outsider)
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So who is Graham Platner?
In simple terms, he’s a 41-year-old working-class, outsider-type candidate and not a traditional politician. He’s also an oyster farmer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of the U.S. Marine Corps & Army National Guard. He’s viewed as a progressive/populist and focuses heavily on economic inequality, anti-elite messaging, universal healthcare, and taxing the wealthy.
And, like Donald Trump, he positions himself as an outsider fighting the political establishment. And that’ll be significant in this election.
Platner will defeat Susan Collins because he combines strong grassroots energy with a political environment that increasingly favors Democrats in Maine. As a Marine veteran and working-class outsider, he appeals to voters who feel disconnected from establishment politicians, while his progressive message on economic inequality energizes younger and left-leaning voters. At the same time, Maine has trended more Democratic in recent national elections, making Collins—despite her moderate image—more vulnerable than in the past.
New – Senate poll – Maine
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 26, 2026
🔵 Platner 48%
🔴 Collins (Inc) 41%
🔵 Mills 46%
🔴 Collins (Inc) 43%
Emerson #A – LV – 3/23 https://t.co/RhZqkCgj4a
If Platner unifies the Democratic base after the primary and capitalizes on high turnout in a favorable national climate, he would have a clear path to narrowly winning the race.
Susan Collins
Collins is considered one of the most bipartisan senators in Congress, as she does not always vote with Republicans. Historically, she’s voted with Trump about 65% of the time. She did, however, vote with Biden roughly 67% of the time in 2023. That’s unusually independent for a Republican senator.
And she didn’t vote for Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. In fact, she was one of a small number of Republicans (along with Lisa Murkowski and, later, Mitch McConnell) who broke with the GOP and opposed him.
However, even as a moderate, Collins still sides with her party on most of the key issues that are close—and that will be her downfall. For example, for judicial nominations, she has voted with Republicans nearly 100% of the time. She also voted for the 2017 Republican tax cuts and voted to acquit Trump in his first impeachment trial.
Susan Collins has sided with Republicans on several major laws, especially the following:
- ✔️ 2017 tax cuts
- ✔️ GOP budget priorities
- ✔️ Judicial nominations
- ✔️ Opposition to Democratic spending bills
So, even though she’s considered moderate, her most important votes often still support Republican agendas.
Maine
Maine is generally considered a Democratic-leaning state, though it is not overwhelmingly liberal compared to others like California, Massachusetts, Maryland, or New York. But in recent presidential elections, Maine has consistently voted for Democratic candidates, reflecting a statewide preference for center-left leadership.
A Democratic governor, Janet Mills, currently leads the state, and its other U.S. senator, Angus King, is an independent who caucuses with Democrats. These factors contribute to Maine’s reputation as a Democratic state at the federal and statewide levels.
However, Maine also has a strong tradition of political independence, with many voters not strictly aligned with either party. This is evident in the continued success of Collins, who has won multiple elections despite the state’s Democratic lean.
Rural areas in northern and inland Maine tend to vote more conservatively, while southern and coastal regions are more liberal.
The state’s use of ranked-choice voting also encourages more moderate candidates and outcomes. As a result, Maine’s political identity is better described as competitive and independent rather than strictly partisan. Overall, while Maine leans Democratic, it remains a politically balanced and unpredictable state.
A threat to the end
Collins will be dangerous until the very end, as evidenced by polling data from her last race. Six years ago, Sarah Gideon appeared poised to knock off Collins and was ahead in virtually every poll before losing solidly by 8.6 percentage points.
What happened? Who knows?
Regardless, the Platner campaign knows it can’t afford to take its foot off the gas.
We think President Trump’s unpopularity and Platner’s populist appeal will be enough to enable Platner to unseat Collins, albeit by just a point or so.
Populist candidates like Platner have become increasingly popular in the United States recently, reflecting growing frustration among voters with traditional political institutions and elites. These candidates often position themselves as outsiders who represent “the people” against powerful economic or political interests, which resonates with voters who feel ignored or left behind.
Both major parties have seen the rise of populist figures, from Donald Trump on the right to Bernie Sanders on the left, showing that this appeal crosses ideological lines. Economic inequality, cultural divisions, and distrust of government have all contributed to the demand for more populist messaging.
At the same time, populist campaigns tend to energize voter turnout, especially among those who might not otherwise participate in politics.
We think Platner’s campaign will get the job done!
