Collins vs. Platner is shaping into a very close contest based on polling data. Platner appears to be barely leading in most recent polling of the two candidates, but it does appear that this lead may be “soft” and subject to erosion.
Latest Collins vs. Platner polling
UMass Lowell/YouGov polled 650 likely voters from May 13 to May 26, which showed that in a general election match-up, Platner was leading Collins by five percentage points. There were 6% undecided and 2% who preferred another candidate.
Public Policy Polling surveyed voters after Platner’s sexting controversy arose and found that Platner was leading Collins 49-45. This survey included a three-point margin of error. Therefore, the lead of Platner appears to have shrunk as the controversy continues to escalate.
A poll reported on by The Hill (which is described as an internal showing of Platner +4) caused Nate Silver to comment that, “this is ‘not super-reassuring,'” due to the fact that internal polls are frequently inflated when compared to actual voter preference and that Collins has consistently outperformed her polling numbers in Maine.
🚨 BREAKING FROM POLLFINITY:
— Pollfinity (@pollfinity) June 5, 2026
MAINE SENATE POLL: Platner 48% Collins 43% | Fav-unfav: Platner 43-41 (+2) Collins 36-53 (-17)
🔵 Graham Platner: 48.0%
🔴 Susan Collins: 43.0%
UMass
What's driving Collins' underwater favorability? pic.twitter.com/tNVxLcIb34
How the polls fit within the broader trend
Bangor Daily News’ analysis of the UMass/YouGov poll noted that although Platner was slightly ahead of Collins in the poll, he is still less well-known than Collins. As such, if voters continue to learn more about Platner, they will become increasingly persuadable.
Additionally, analysts stated that there is considerable room for movement toward either candidate as the election date draws closer.
This is KEY – Don’t forget what happened 6 years ago
Collins will be dangerous until the very end, as evidenced by polling data from her last race. Six years ago, Sarah Gideon appeared poised to knock off Collins and was ahead in virtually every poll before losing solidly by 8.6 percentage points. Due to this historical precedent, analysts are cautioning against taking the narrow lead of Platner at face value.
What happened? Who knows?
Will President Trump’s unpopularity and Platner’s populist appeal be enough to enable Platner to unseat Collins, even if by just a point or so?
To win, Platner may need a heavy cushion, perhaps 10+ percent, heading into Election Night.
Her ‘moderate’ brand makes Collins tough to knock off
Maine really does behave like a politically moderate state – it leans slightly Democratic statewide today but has a long history of ticket‑splitting, independent candidates, and close races. With Collins being a relative moderate, who occasionally votes against Trump and the Republican maintsream, she’ll be difficult to defeat in Maine, regardless of what the present-day polls indicate that Graham Platner is leading by a relatively thin margin.
She is also a four-term incumbent who has developed an enormous amount of name recognition throughout the state over many years.
Even if some models that lean heavily on history and incumbency currently project a Platner win over Collins, they overlook how often those kinds of forecasts have been wrong in the past, especially in Maine.
Therefore, under no circumstance can it be assumed that Collins will not be considered a very difficult opponent in Maine.
Platner’s strategy should be…
Platner should stress Collins’ voting record which works against her moderate/independent label. Although her “brand” is predicated on political independence, she’s clearly a true Republican. Groups critical of Collins, like the Maine Democratic Party and voting‑rights advocates, have compiled her roll‑call record and argue she lined up with Trump’s agenda on roughly 96 percent of key votes, a rate they say matches or even slightly exceeds staunch conservatives such as Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul.
