For decades, the United States has considered Greenland an essential component of American national security. The early 20th century saw the United States include Greenland along with several other European colonies in the Western Hemisphere, which were to be seized and fortified if there was a threat of an enemy attack on the United States.
What country owns Greenland?
Although Greenland is a self-ruling territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, which means that Denmark has sovereignty over Greenland, Denmark gives Greenland the ability to manage almost all aspects of its internal government; and in recent years, Greenland has become increasingly autonomous in terms of foreign policy, defense, and security and the Greenlanders have been granted full rights of citizenship by Denmark.
Danish troops told to 'shoot first, ask questions later' if US invades Greenland https://t.co/fzwjEzuRbf
— LBC (@LBC) January 7, 2026
Even though Greenland enjoys a great deal of self-government (it received home rule in 1979, and further increased the amount of control it has over its own affairs in 2009), it still does not have complete independence from Denmark and is ultimately subject to the authority of Denmark in matters relating to defense, foreign policy, and currency.
This brings us to President Donald Trump.
President Trump believes that the United States needs to take possession of the Arctic island to secure America’s safety and the security of its NATO allies, a notion that its allies—and Greenland—strongly disagree with.
Greenlanders say they’re terrified after Trump talked about invading Greenland.
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) January 10, 2026
The damage this madman has done to America’s standing in the world will take years to repair.
pic.twitter.com/CwzxS2BWH7
FACT: Although Greenland is the largest island in the world, it boasts a population of just 56,000 people. The tiny population is due to the majority of Greenland being uninhabitable.
So, what are the odds of the U.S. acquiring part of Greenland in 2026?
According to Polymarket, odds suggest there’s a 32% chance the United States acquires at least part of Greenland in 2026, as of January 7 at 1 AM ET. Hence, a successful $100 wager would garner $297.55.
Two things: 1) Because this is a fresh wager, the odds are constantly fluctuating. And 2) the keywords two paragraphs above are “part of.”
Per Polymarket: Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies.
This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland does not apply, except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
While the idea of the U.S. taking over ALL of Greenland would be bold, highly unpopular internationally, and downright criminal, an agreement that grants America a portion of the large island could still be feasible.
Consider this: Greenland is enormous, and over 80% of it is uninhabitable.
Would Denmark be willing to give up a sizeable chunk of uninhabitable land they wouldn’t miss in exchange for a lot of money?
Maybe… However, the Danish government and the autonomous government of Greenland have forcefully stated that Greenland is not for sale. They have rejected the idea of selling the territory, even a sizeable chunk of uninhabitable land, calling it “absurd” and a violation of the Greenlandic people’s right to self-determination. Nevertheless, selling uninhabitable land would surely be an alternative to military action or Trump repeatedly attempting to punish Denmark economically. Regardless, such a deal would have to be a win for both sides, the United States and Greenland.
But, can humans live in some places deemed uninhabitable?
Answer: YES! Humans are quite adaptable. With the proper infrastructure, U.S. military bases could thrive in parts of Greenland. For example, about 500 people live in Oymyakon, Russia, where bone-chilling temperatures can plummet to -90 degrees Fahrenheit.
A well-funded project where builders and servicemen are impeccably prepared to deal with the cold might flourish in parts of Greenland.
Prediction: I’m going out on a limb and predicting America will acquire part of Greenland in 2026, if for no other reason than to soothe Trump’s ego. And I think the U.S. will offer Denmark/Greenland a sweet deal, making it a win for them.
Will it be worth it for the U.S.?
… That’s another article.
January 8 update:
“U.S. officials have discussed sending lump sum payments to Greenlanders as part of a bid to convince them to secede from Denmark and potentially join the United States,” Reuters reports.
“While the exact dollar figure and logistics of any payment are unclear, U.S. officials, including White House aides, have discussed figures ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 per person.”
