Perception is sometimes stronger than reality.
The polling firm Harris found that independents think the overall economy is getting worse. However, the economy is actually improving a bit in terms of GDP growth, unemployment and wage data; But it is improving so slowly and with stubborn inflation and high costs.
Most mainstream outlooks describe the U.S. economy as “expanding” or “constructive,” but transitioning into a slower‑growth phase with stubborn but manageable inflation risks. So yes, it is improving compared with late 2025, but it is not a runaway boom and still faces risks from high debt, global tensions, and policy uncertainty.
Hence, it’s not surprising that people see the bad effects of grocery prices, rents, insurance and interest rates, and think the economy is worsening.
To put this in perspective, most independents simply look at their wallets and bills and say, “It was better two years ago than it is today.”
Are you better off now than a year or two ago? If the answer feels like “no,” you might retrospectively upgrade the prior period. This is classic recency bias and status‑quo bias: dissatisfaction with the present inflates how good the last administration looks, even if you disliked that prior administration at the time.
And yes, prices for groceries, rent, gas, and insurance are still high, and a lot of folks feel squeezed, so they blame whoever is in charge and remember the last guy as “not this bad.”
The economy was better under
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 3, 2026
🔵 Biden 70%
🔴 Trump 30%
Harris X #B – Independent voters – 5/31 pic.twitter.com/BiBo0kdkRn
Fact: Inflation under Biden was mostly an inevitable global phenomenon. It rose in many countries with advanced economies soon after the pandemic recovery process started.
Also, let’s not forget that independent voters are generally the most pessimistic regarding economics across various polls, and therefore usually penalize the incumbent for what they view as a decline in their personal financial situation.
And third, Trump gave folks unrealistically high expectations. I remember after the election some people were literally budgeting for pre-pandemic prices for the following quarter. After all, at campaign rallies in August and October 2024, Trump said things like “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again” and “We will bring down the prices of all goods.”
He claimed he could get gasoline “down below $2 per Gallon,” cut energy & electric prices in half over 12-18 months, and lower grocery prices and a lot of people believed him. However, housing costs, utility costs, and price increases for food items remain above pre-pandemic levels or continue to rise.
Trump won on inflation and the American people expect him to deliver. All this stuff about foreign policy and Iran, DEI, trans rights, and immigration are distant, second-tier desires among independent voters.
As for my interpretation of “70% of Independents:” It appears to be a protest vote against current economic conditions and President Trump. It is a warning flag that his economic message is failing to connect with undecided voters who may not specifically support Democratic candidates but will vote for them if they think it’ll translate to an improved financial situation.
Incidentally, independents are particularly pessimistic about Trump’s overall performance on the job. Just 21 percent think Trump is doing an excellent or good job as president; 71 percent disapprove of his job performance – a -50 net approval. This represents a new record-low among Independents for either Trump term.
