President Donald Trump recently expressed optimism about the Republican Party’s chances in the 2026 midterm elections, predicting the party will ‘win like never before.’
Is he right?
The Atlantic: “Midterm elections are typically rough for an incumbent president’s party. But this year threatens to be brutal. Trump’s approval is lower right now than it was at this point ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won back the House in a historic blue wave.”
Even non-college-educated White Americans, once the president’s strongest group, have turned on him, according to a CNN polling average.
And Democratic-leaning voters are 17 points more likely than GOP-aligned voters to say they’re “extremely motivated” to vote in November.”
“Many Trump voters, in other words, have had it. At this point, it seems safe to declare that the historic coalition that powered the president’s second reelection is finished—kaput. The question is whether, with seven months to go until the midterms, any semblance of it can be revived.”
Perhaps Trump was only looking at MAGA voters when he made that prediction? And perhaps he believes everyone who voted for him in 2024 was a MAGA supporter. But fewer Americans are full-on MAGA than Trump may think. In fact, only 50-60 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters said they were a MAGA follower.
It Took a Lot More than MAGA to Win an Election
“Trump voters” in 2024 were not one single, monolithic voting block. It’s probably easier to think of them as a coalition of various motivations.
- Core MAGA base: Extremely loyal; ideologically/personally connected to Donald J. Trump. Still very supportive!
- Republican partisans / Anti-Democratic voters: People who will vote Republican, no matter the candidate. It is more about party affiliation than about an individual, such as Trump.
- Issue voters: Individuals who are primarily concerned with issues such as abortion, the economy, immigration, taxes, etc., and who voted for Trump as the lesser evil on these issues rather than out of personal loyalty.
- Low-information/late deciders: Political neophytes who do not have strong political leanings and may be swayed either positively or negatively depending upon current events (like inflation) or how they perceive their current situation.
In 2024, Trump won all of those groups, but it’s the last two that are seemingly disenchanted. So, the signs of erosion are outside of his core base, more specifically, low-information and issue voters.
- About 14% of Trump’s 2024 voters now disapprove of him, and some say they’d vote Democratic in congressional races.
- Support has declined among certain religious groups and minorities.
- Among Catholics specifically, recent polling shows more disapproval than approval (52% vs. 48%).
What does this mean?
Soft supporters and swing voters are peeling away, not the hardcore base. But those soft supporters and swing voters were the very people who won him the election in November. Without their support, Trump is just another politician in trouble.
What’s driving the dissatisfaction? - Economy/gas prices: 65% of voters blame Trump at least partly for rising gas prices.
- Foreign policy (Iran conflict): The majority disapprove of his handling of the situation.
- Controversies & rhetoric: His actions and statements have “alienated key voter blocs,” including some conservatives.
It’s these issues that are especially hurting him with independents, moderates, and political novices.
As early as November 2024, we predicted Trump wouldn’t get a third term. And not because he couldn’t change the Constitution, but because few people would want him back.
Summary
Trump’s approval among Republicans remains very high, with some polls showing around 80% or more. And at rallies, many supporters continue to defend him strongly—even amid controversy—describing his actions as strategic or justified. So for now, Trump’s base remains intact, but that’s nowhere near large enough to win him an election.
Parts of his 2024 coalition are weakening—especially softer, less ideological supporters.
Trump’s national approval rating is roughly 37–43% approve vs. ~55–58% disapprove. And generic congressional polling shows Democrats leading Republicans heading into midterms.
