A recent Emerson College Polling/FOX56 study among Kentucky voters indicates Congressman Andy Barr still holds the lead over other candidates in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, polling at 28 percent. In comparison, Barr polled at 24 percent in Emerson’s February survey. Former Attorney General Daniel Cameron follows Barr at 21 percent. Businessman Nate Morris trails both at 15 percent. Thirty percent of the voters surveyed remain undecided.
KENTUCKY POLL with @FOX56News
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) April 2, 2026
GOP Primary for Senate
Andy Barr 28%
Daniel Cameron 21%
Nate Morris 15%
Michael Faris 2%
29% undecidedhttps://t.co/8UQDvc4yJi pic.twitter.com/7LoLaIzCII
Republican voters also were polled as to which candidate they believed would be the most supportive of the Trump Administration’s agenda. 38 percent of voters believe Barr will support Trump the most; 22 percent chose Cameron; 21 percent chose Morris; 13 percent of the voters stated they did not believe any of the candidates supported Trump.
“Congressman Andy Barr continues to hold an early lead in a fractured Republican primary field,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. “However, with almost three out of ten voters remaining undecided, the primary is far from settled.”
Kimball continued to say, “Barr’s lead in the polls is fueled by voters’ perception that Barr is the closest to supporting Trump’s agenda.”
46 percent of Republicans feel that receiving Trump’s endorsement will cause them to support a candidate more than before. 41 percent of voters stated that it does not affect their vote either way. 13 percent indicated that receiving Trump’s endorsement causes them to be less likely to support a candidate.
Kentucky voters were polled as to how they viewed the top executive, as well as their state’s very moderate Democratic governor. 52 percent of voters approve of President Donald Trump’s performance as President. 42 percent of voters disapproved. 50 percent of voters approve of Governor Andy Beshear’s performance as governor. Thirty-seven percent of voters disapproved.
The majority of voters disapprove of how U.S. Senators perform their jobs. 71 percent of voters disapproved of how Senator Mitch McConnell performed his job. Only 13 percent approved. A plurality of voters, 41 percent, disapproved of Senator Rand Paul’s job performance. 28 percent of voters approved. 33 percent of voters remained neutral towards Rand Paul.
Voters were then asked what their number one personal financial concern is right now: if any. 27 percent of voters are primarily concerned with paying their grocery and food bills; sixteen percent are primarily concerned with making their healthcare payments and costs; 6 percent are concerned with making their housing payments, including mortgages and rent; 4 percent are concerned with being unemployed; and two percent are concerned with paying tuition or school expenses. 5 percent of voters reported having no financial concerns.
A majority of voters, 59, are concerned with high costs when it comes to healthcare. Issues with insurance follow at 13 percent, and lack of access to healthcare came in at 10 percent. 14 percent of voters stated they had no current healthcare concerns.
Finally, voters were polled as to what their top concern regarding democracy is. A third of voters, 33 percent, cited misinformation and fake news as their main concern regarding democracy; 26 percent cited election integrity; 17 percent cited voter suppression; 14 percent cited the erosion of democratic institutions; and 5 percent reported having no concerns regarding democracy.
Can a black man, Daniel Cameron, win the Republican primary?
Probably not. After all, this is Kentucky.
If Cameron secures Trump’s endorsement, that could shift momentum—but Cameron is a disciple of McConnell, who has frequently butted heads with Trump, so that’s not likely to happen.
Can a Democrat win?
Given that 52 percent of Kentuckians still support Trump (as of April 2), it would take a lot for a Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat there. Even if Trump’s approval rating falls another 5 points in Kentucky prior to election time, the likelihood of a Democratic Senate victory would still be remote.
Key dynamics to watch
Where undecideds break—that will likely decide the race
Endorsements (especially from major GOP figures or Trump)
Fundraising + ad spending
Debates/media exposure
