US models published in the New England Journal of Medicine predict that 50 percent of US adults will be obese by 2030, with several states approaching 60% and none below 35%. And extended forecasts say that by 2050, around 60–80 percent of American adults will be overweight or obese.
We disagree.
This may seem odd to most, but we’re predicting the demise of obesity as well as popular fast food chains like McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King. They will continue to exist over the next two decades, but expect a big dropoff within the next 10 years. We think there will be a significant drop-off in fast-food locations by 2035 unless or until they drastically change their menus.
Why?
Fast food prices have surged over the last 5 years, but that doesn’t figure into our prediction. We’re looking at something else – The decline of obesity and the fast food industry (as we know it) will go hand in hand.
Enter: The relatively new and very successful peptides for appetite suppression and weight loss.
Unlike those terribly weak over-the-counter appetite suppressants from the 1990s, prescription peptides, such as GLP-1 and Semaglutide (Ozempic), work great at reducing appetite and are receiving rave reviews for influencing substantial weight loss results thus far. They stimulate the release of hormones that regulate metabolism, leading to increased calorie burning, making it easier for the body to break down and use stored fat for energy. And peptides, while promoting fat loss, can also help preserve muscle mass, which is crucial for maintaining a healthy body composition.
So, what does this have to do with fast food chains?
It should be obvious.
We believe that over the next 10 years, 25 to 35% of people aged 25 to 70 will adopt peptide injections for intentional or regulated weight loss, or to help them maintain their weight. As a result, we expect a 30 to 60% reduction users’ daily caloric consumption compared to the current standards for the aforementioned age group.
Expect this to be a very damaging transition for the fast food industry that benefits from impulsive eating, folks who are predisposed to overeating, and those who find it difficult to exercise restraint.
You’ve probably heard about Ozempic for weight loss, but even that popular peptide is relatively weak compared to ones on the horizon. In fact, studies have shown that Tirzepatide, approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on May 13, 2022, under the brand name Mounjaro, is superior to Ozempic (Semaglutide) for weight loss according to a myriad of medical studies and opinions on Reddit. However, the peptides currently under review by the FDA, particularly Retatrutide and BRP (BRINP2-Related Peptide), are expected to be superior to Tirzepatide (Mounjaro).
In a 48-week Phase 2 study focused on obesity, findings suggest that Retatrutide (sometimes referred to as Reta), which is currently only in clinical trials and does not yet have a commercial option, may enable greater weight loss compared to existing drugs like Tirzepatide and Ozempic. However, further research is necessary to confirm these outcomes. While the FDA could potentially approve Retatrutide for use within the next 2 years, additional studies are required to establish its safety and efficacy comprehensively.
Currently, Retatrutide is in phase III obesity clinical trials, and might be approved by the FDA in 2027.
Retatrutide—A Game Changer in Obesity Pharmacotherapy
– National Library of Medicine – National Institutes of Health
But, there’s more. Even Retatrutide, which is the hottest upcoming drug for weight loss among hardcore insiders, is expected to pale in comparison to BRP, which is still early in the discovery process. This creation was powered by artificial intelligence, which allowed scientists to comb through thousands of potential molecules efficiently and identify those most promising for appetite suppression and weight regulation.
“The receptors targeted by Semaglutide (Ozempic) are found in the brain but also in the gut, pancreas, and other tissues,” said assistant professor of pathology Katrin Svensson, PhD, who was the senior author of the research, which was published March 5 in Nature. But BRP works via a pathway in the brain’s hypothalamus, unlike Ozempic (Semaglutide), which mimics GLP-1 and has effects throughout the body.
“We are very eager to learn if [it] is safe and effective in humans,” she added.
“The algorithm was absolutely key to our findings,” said assistant professor of pathology Katrin Svensson, PhD, who was the senior author of the research, which was published March 5 in Nature.
BRP is a promising new peptide that will rival Ozempic and Tirzepatide in suppressing appetite and promoting fat loss, but with markedly fewer side effects (at least in animal models so far). If these findings hold up in human trials, BRP could represent a major advance in obesity treatment that combines precision targeting with improved safety and tolerability.
Fast-food chains depend on and intentionally leverage food noise to drive sales and customer behavior. The industry’s entire marketing and in-store strategy is designed to create environmental and psychological “noise” that leads to cravings, impulse buys, and faster consumption. What will happen when a significant percentage of fast food goers conquer their food noise?
Impressive Results in Animals: In just 14 days, obese mice that received daily BRP injections showed a remarkable weight loss of about 3 grams, mainly due to fat reduction. In contrast, the control group of mice gained weight over the same period. This compelling evidence strongly suggests that BRP could be an effective solution for promoting fat loss and managing obesity.
And what about those side effects of using peptides for weight loss?
Most weight loss peptides, like Ozempic and Tirzepatide, are known for their minimal side effects. Hence, they almost seem too good to be true. That stated, the long-term safety and effects of many of these peptides are not yet fully understood due to limited research.
By 2040, obesity, on some level, will be passe. (Of course, that’s another prediction for another article)
Summary / Prediction
The demise of fast food chains is just a matter of time once weight loss peptides are available and affordable to the general public. And the latter may be elusive to many consumers at this point, but it is a matter of time before these advancements change our entire health and nutritional approach, and they will bring significant challenges to the fast food industry.
The GLP-1 receptor drugs have been “transformative to say the least,” said Dr. Shauna Levy, a specialist in obesity medicine and the medical director of the Tulane Bariatric Center in New Orleans.
“They’ve given so many people hope that felt sort of helpless in this fight against the disease of obesity.” In fact, Levy said Retatrutide is on course to deliver results that are comparable to bariatric surgery.
“It’s certainly knocking on the door or getting close,” Levy added via NBC News.”
Tirzepatide and Retatrutide (which is expected to be approved in 2027), alone, would fulfill our prediction about fast food chains. But with the AI-influenced BRP on the horizon, we’re confident fast food chains should prepare for a major dip in revenue that’ll match the public’s expected decreased food noise and impulse eating over the next 10 years.
So fast food chains will still exist, but don’t expect to see so many loactions.
