The threat of nuclear or radiological terrorism is classified as “low-probability, high-impact,” but recent assessments from the United Nations indicate that the danger has actually “never been so high.”
“I think the threat has never been so high as it is today,” says Mauro Miedico, Director of the UN Counter-Terrorism Centre (UNCCT).
Therefore, the main concern is not to create panic today but to warn against complacency tomorrow, as technological and geopolitical factors shift.
What are the concerns? Nuclear terror includes various possible scenarios:
(1) theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon
(2) construction of an improvised nuclear device using fissile materials that were previously stolen
(3) radiological “dirty bomb.”
(4) sabotage of nuclear plant(s) or fuel facility(ies); experts consider dirty bombs and sabotage of nuclear facilities as the more realistic types of warnings for this scenario.
Experts also warn that the structural increase in risk is caused by a combination of new technologies, the increasing availability of both nuclear and radiological materials to less-regulated countries, the weakening of arms-control regimes, and the continuing development of groups such as ISIS.
The number of overall terrorist incidents has decreased since the last time the U.N. released its warning, and there have been no successful nuclear-terrorist attacks over approximately 80 years of nuclear history. Decades of security and intelligence efforts have helped to maintain this status quo.
Governments’ nuclear security agencies must continue to expend resources on protecting and securing radioactive materials, cross-border intelligence gathering, and the hardening of nuclear plants and transportation systems.
If you have extra cash, it wouldn’t hurt to prepare for a nuclear attack by stocking up on bottled water, non-perishable food, and essential medicines. Furthermore, have flashlights and a hand-crank or battery-powered radio available, and map out the most protective shelters nearby (basements, subways, or the centers of thick concrete/brick buildings).
