A recent report highlights a warning from a German security expert who specializes in Russia, offering a sobering prediction about the Russia–Ukraine war and its likely long-term trend. The expert predicts that, without major political or strategic change, the conflict could evolve into a protracted, almost semipermanent confrontation.
The German expert’s core prediction is that Russia is very unlikely to end the war quickly because it still has substantial manpower and material resources it can mobilize. He warns that Moscow can continue calling up more people and reorienting its economy toward sustained warfare, which means the war “will go on for some time” and may turn into an enduring, grinding standoff rather than a rapid victory for either side.
This warning reflects a broader trend he sees: both Russia’s capacity and its political willingness to bear high costs make a quick resolution improbable.
He identifies three main factors driving this long-war trend:
1. Russia’s ability to keep feeding soldiers and equipment to the front, regardless of the financial and human cost.
2. Second, the Kremlin’s apparent willingness to accept economic damage and heavy casualties rather than risk defeat.
3. Third, the likelihood that Western financial support to Ukraine may decline over time, which would slow Kyiv’s ability to regain territory and shift the balance.
Taken together, these trends suggest both sides may have enough strength to avoid outright defeat but not enough to secure a decisive victory, prolonging the conflict.
Other European military and security analysts broadly echo this warning, describing the war as a “grinding” or “attritional” conflict. Many predict that, under current casualty and spending trends, the war could continue for years and is unlikely to produce a mutually acceptable peace agreement in the near term. In essence, analysts predict ongoing combat along a mostly static front line, intermittent offensives or escalations by either side, and extended periods of stalemate where neither party is willing to compromise.
While some Western experts predict that Russian military capabilities could be significantly degraded within the next year or so—potentially opening a window for negotiations—they usually stress that this outcome depends on sustained Western support and political decisions in both Moscow and Kyiv.
Reflecting this outlook, many European governments now openly discuss supporting Ukraine “for as long as needed,” signaling that they are planning for multi‑year assistance rather than a quick end to hostilities.
Don’t count on effective, widespread protests from the Russian people
Don’t look to the Russian people to express widespread discontent with Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine. Public compliance in authoritarian regimes during war usually comes from a mix of fear, propaganda, group psychology, and a sense of powerlessness rather than genuine enthusiasm. People know that under authoritarian regimes, dissent can bring prison, loss of job, or worse, which strongly incentivizes silence and conformity even when they disagree.
Furthermore, Russia has deliberately shielded major urban populations from the worst mobilization burdens and casualties, pushing the highest costs onto poorer regions, ethnic minorities, and volunteers, which reduces visible backlash in big cities. How long they can continue doing this is unknown.
